This is the fourth entry in our week-long series profiling the most likely vice presidential candidates. We’ve previously looked at Sen. Jim Webb, Gov. Ted Strickland, and Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.
Today we look at Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia, another likely candidate for Obama’s short list. Gov. Kaine was one of the first Democrats outside of Illinois to endorse Barack Obama during the earliest days of his candidacy. Kaine was first elected governor in 2005, by a very narrow margin, and his term is set to expire in 2010. Kaine prospects beyond then are dim; Virginia law prevents Kaine from serving consecutive terms, and Sen. Jim Webb’s seat cannot be challenged until 2012, as for Virginia’s other Senate seat, it seems quite likely that Democrat Mark Warner will take over Republican Sen. John Warner’s seat this November. These factors likely make Kaine very open to the possibility of a vice presidential nomination. An immediate problem with selecting Kaine is that it would put Virginia’s Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Republican, in the governor’s mansion, providing him with a leg-up in the 2009 gubernatorial race.
That concern aside, Tim Kaine brings a lot to the table. He is governor of a state with 13 electoral votes that has been trending blue the last few election cycles. Bush took the state in 2004 by just 8 points, and had Kerry not pulled out of the state early, it may very well have been even closer. Mark Warner was an extraordinarily popular Democratic governor, and Kaine followed on his heels, surviving a very hard fought election. Despite working with a Republican controlled General Assembly for the first half of his term, Gov. Kaine was able to produce bipartisan compromises, demonstrating his effectiveness at forging coalitions to achieve victory. Gov. Kaine also handled the Virginia Tech massacre amazingly well and worked very hard on providing the families with a generous settlement despite the fact that the Commonwealth was unlikely to ever be found liable for the events of that tragic day. This shows a strong commitment to social justice from which other politicians could learn a great deal.
Kaine is also known as a tireless campaigner. He beat the drum for Jim Webb in 2006, and ruffled more than a few Republican feathers in the process. I’ve seen him give speeches and C-SPAN and rarely have I been so fired up by a politician. This bulldog quality is an essential for an effective vice president.
Looking at the hard numbers, Gov. Kaine currently holds an approval rating of 57% according to an April, 2008 SUSA poll. These numbers are spread across a broad coalition of voters. Kaine’s support stays above 50% in nearly every demographic, but reaches 63% among voters over 65 (a demographic which has thus far largely eluded Obama). He also wins over 67% of moderates, and even gains the approval of 42% of conservatives. Moreover, Kaine fares strongly among whites, Hispanics and African Americans (58% – 55% - 54%, respectively). This broad range of support makes him a compelling choice for vice president. His popularity among moderates, and reasonable standing among conservative voters, could assist him in expanding Obama’s base in November, and might place Virginia in the Democratic column.
Despite his demographic strengths and overall popularity, Kaine does have some weaknesses. He is a strong opponent of the death penalty, which proved to be a major issue in the gubernatorial election. Seventy-six percent of Virginians support the death penalty (see question 32), which is a full ten points higher than the national average. Despite his opposition to the death penalty, Gov. Kaine has allowed four executions to proceed while governor. He has not pardoned anyone, but he has delayed executions in order to let appeals be completed, and, more recently, to wait for the Supreme Court to rule on Baze v. Rees. Kaine has also vetoed attempts to expand the number of crimes eligible for the death penalty. And while these measures should be applauded, it should go without saying that the Republicans will likely use this in the fall in order to paint Kaine, and more broadly, the Democratic ticket as soft on crime. Given the levels of support for the death penalty nationwide, as well as the even higher levels of support for capital punishment in Gov. Kaine’s home state, the Republicans are likely to use this issue to chip away at Kaine’s support.
Another point of attack the Republicans will use against Kaine is likely to be the Governor’s stance on gun control. He has supported more restrictions on gun show sales and on concealed weapons, especially since the Virginia Tech massacre. There can be no doubt that the Republicans will do their best to raise this as an issue. However, such attempts might be misguided given the context in which they’re presented; the mass killing at Virginia Tech will not lend itself easily to political manipulation.
Kaine also has a big weakness with the left as he is opposed to abortion. Kaine supports the partial-birth abortion ban and has a faith-based objection to abortion; Kaine is Catholic. This will certainly make him unacceptable to many Democrats, especially given the strong Hillary Clinton support that still remains among women in the Party. Kaine’s weakness on women’s rights might not go over so well among a group of supporters still stinging from a Clinton defeat.
One final weakness is the Republican’s bread-and-butter complaint about the Democrats: fiscal responsibility. Kaine has tried to raise taxes recently to deal with transportation infrastructure problems, and we can rest assured that they’ll use this against him in the general election, portraying him and Obama as typical “tax and spend” liberals.
Overall, Kaine has proven himself to be a true leader committed to solving the problems that he is confronted with; however, his position on the death penalty, guns, abortion, and taxation may cause him to come under fire from both the left and the right. While Kaine is certainly not a bad choice for the VP slot, Obama will need to take these weaknesses under consideration when evaluating him.
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