Theleftanchor.com::Forex trading -Technical analysis daily,weekly

Europe and America are on the brink of recession, according to the bank Morgan Stanley. In a research note titled, rather disturbing, the investment bank means that next year the global growth forecasts are still for almost all major economies, not only in the Eurozone or the U.S. but also China and India.

In a sense, this analysis is absolutely right, because the world economy is facing the prospect of a new downturn, perhaps it could be worse than the first. And ‘know that the crisis is not over in 2008, given that bank loans have been transferred over time, leading a much larger crisis. It ‘also known that the major economies of the world can slow down again.
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The trend lines are the most powerful technical analysis tools that can be used. They allow you to assess trends and their direction, to identify potential reversal levels and to evaluate where to enter the market with a low risk and high yield. It ‘so important to understand how to use forex trend lines.

These lines are basically a level of support or resistance. There is talk of dynamic lines, unlike the static, advancing and change with time. The trend line can thus be a trend upward or downward.

There are two ways to use trend lines in their trading. The first is to consider that the trend lines are a support or resistance, which is a psychological barrier that the price does not break easily. Traders expect the price touches one of these lines and to begin a reversal.
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The price of oil rose by about $ 1 a barrel yesterday, supported by hopes that European leaders can find practical solutions to the debt crisis. Concerns about the crisis in the euro area, together with a series of U.S. economic data are very poor, have dragged down oil prices during this month, at least until now.

It seems as if not only the problem of U.S. debt, but also the European problem and some of the more generalized fears that have pushed crude oil to 75 dollars per barrel, have retired. If a ceasefire is more or less temporary remains to be seen.

One thing that has a negative impact on oil prices is certainly also the downgrading of U.S. debt on the part of ‘the rating agency Standard & Poor’s, in addition to fears that France might suffer the same fate. Crude oil prices have, however, supported by a rebound in global stock markets after last week’s heavy losses, with data showing that Japan’s economy has shrunk less than expected in the second quarter as a result of damage suffered in the devastating last March.
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The markets expected yesterday to be particularly shaken after the degradation of E-Note U. But it is Europe that has done so with the news that the ECB in urgently buy debt to reassure the markets and the euro after falling in 4150 rose again this morning at 4270. Our advice in the morning, 4270/80 will be our strength with a bullish macd 30 mins. A passage above 4280/95 should return parity on the high points of yesterday 4320/50 and 4380. The rash will sell points of resistance to current 4250 and 4220 with stoploss of 4295 for at- above, the movement should be quick to 4320. Since the 30 mins and 4 hours are bullish this morning, we will stay slightly to the purchase, but a failure in 4270/80 and in 4295 we could claim as a fall yesterday morning.

EUR / USD

For today’s the day we might consider opening a long position if the price of the exchange rate should break the upward threshold of 1.4390, with the first goal at a height of 1.4410 and 1.4430 share for the second goal. If the price of this exchange ratio should break downward the value of 1.4150 could open a position in sales with the first goal and second goal 1.4130 1.4110.

EUR / GBP

For the last session we could open a new long position if the price were to break the rising share of 0.8740, with the first goal at a height of 0.8750 and 0.8770 share for the second goal. If the price of this exchange ratio should break downward the value of 0.8670, we could open a short position with the first goal at a height of 0.8650 and 0.8630 share for the second goal.
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The suspense lasted until the last moment last week with the negotiations on the U.S. debt ceiling. But as expected, a compromise that would solve one was found and everyone is relieved. On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe, the debt problems accelerating and Italy seems to be in the spotlight brings a lot of concerns after Spain. This weekend, European leaders have been forced to reassure the markets but bad news weighed heavily on the euro and after a low of 4050, the euro ended the week in 4280 after the announcement of no S & P degradation of E-Note U.

For the coming week, the daily MACD is bearish. But as you saw, we are still in a range between 1.40 and 1.45, with intermediate points (4380/4150) to play up and down. This week, we should continue to play the same point unless the European runaway crisis and the euro will suffer greatly from then under 1.40.
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Last week we proposed three scenarios and that is slightly bullish consolidation that has prevailed with the lower area 6220 and a high of 6420/40. This week, we must look at the impact of the degradation of E- U Standar & Poor’s on the dollar and see if the book does not benefit to go back to 1.67, the highest of 29 April.

The daily MACD is still bullish and a move to- above 6420/40 should logically lead to parity and 1.65- top of 1.67. Also will require attention to inflation figure of Columbia on August 10 it appears that bad could push markets to speculate on a future rate increase English and then push the pound higher.

However, with economic data to see how poor English and U.S. figures more nuanced, the status quo can continue and parity remain in the current range.
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Summer ends, and the markets have already shown activity. Me this is good news, especially when you consider that the currency pairs are no major movements in the summer was not. However, the stock market has shown that it is worth to wake up and have to be ready to go, and, possibly, new trends in the foreign exchange market. The U.S. stock market shows record rate of decline since the crisis began in 2008, but interestingly, the currency pair does not react to it. Logically, a collapse in the stock market has a positive impact on the U.S. dollar and government bonds. And at this point we can say that commodity currencies are just beginning to reduce the momentum and the euro and did not see any reduction.

That’s why I did not resort to long-term forecasts in the spring and summer, I do not want too much guessing at before now. On the one hand we have a good prosevshy American stock market, on the other hand euro outset until released. Now I see 2 versions of the situation, which did not paint a clear picture of the long term: 1. , A new bearish trend, where we will see a stronger dollar, I do not expect second bottom, and did not think the situation in 2008 can now be repeated. Among other things, rising gold, and it is a signal of uncertainty investors. During the period of such uncertainty should not be expected to strengthen: the euro, the pound and the currencies of commodity 2. The second option radically opposite. It is possible that the decline in U.S. stock market – just a technical correction, despite the fact that it is quite substantial, it may end up as quickly as it began.
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EUR / USD

Week starts on uphill for this exchange ratio, after the approval of U.S. rescue plan for the session today of this cross currencies might consider opening a location in the same purchase if the value exceeds the upward price of 1.4420, setting a first target share and 1.4440 share of 1.4460 as the second goal. If the price of the exchange ratio should break down the value of 1.4340, then we could open a short position with the first goal at a height of 1.4320 and 1.4300 share for the second goal.

EUR / GBP

For the trading day today we open a new long position if the price were to break the rising share of 0.8790, setting the first goal at a height of 0.8800 and 0.8820 share for the second goal. If the price of this break exchange ratio would fall below the share of 0.8720, then we could open a new short position by placing the primary objective of the share as 0.8710 and 0.8700 share of the second objective.
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Markets look up. Technically, a lot of signals to buy. The only thing that can spoil the picture – the news. I believe that no technical default in the U.S. there will be no debt ceiling will be raised again, but some negative comments can have a positive impact on the dollar, and what is risk reduction in the stock market, and reduce the risk of high-yielding currencies with the euro.

EURUSD – All very good looks to buy, now the time when you should go to Long with short stops on all signals
GBPUSD – It looks good and the pound, you should buy
USDJPY – should still wait a bit, the pair is trading near historical lows, it is difficult to predict whether the sample (more…)