Last week was particularly volatile with a high of 4520 and a low of 4250 before ending the week on 4397. As we wrote last Sunday, negotiations on the debt ceiling U.S. weighed heavily and will weigh more than last-minute agreement before Aug. 2 on parity. Failing agreement, the dollar may be under pressure and there is a risk to see him get high.
On the other hand, Europe is not doing better. Spain has just seen its financial score deteriorated and elections are scheduled for the fall. The island of Cyprus is almost bankrupt and it will appeal to Europe to get by.
Thus, it seems a sort of game of ping pong between the two sides of the Atlantic and parity goes up or down depending on economic bad news.
Continue reading Forex Weekly technical analysis of EUR USD Aug 1-5,2011
Last week, we wrote “A failure in 6150/80 is expected to return to parity by 1.60. But nevertheless, the area of 5930/80 was to prevent a larger fall and will serve as entry points for a return to- over 1.60 “and this weekend we returned to 6057 with poor U.S. figures.
Parity seems to have found this week points of support to halt the decline temporarily started in early May. It comforts us at the moment the idea that we could stay for some time between 1.60 and 1.67. However this still depends on it this week that we could go back to 6150 for 6250 and 6330.
Continue reading Weekly technical analysis of GBP – USD July 11-15
Last week, we were particularly wrong about the ECB before. Most of the time, an announcement of a Euro rate hike is a sign of strong support and hence a contract drawn up. It did not happen and instead grant that has gender down, unable to return to- above 4380. Worse, the decline in 1.43 resulted in a bearish signal to appear in daily. Yet one would have thought that after the episode the Greek situation would go away and that rising rates would have been a good opportunity to push up the euro. But the deterioration in the financial score of Portugal has strengthened the dollar even as the U.S. figures were bad or average.
Continue reading Weekly technical analysis of EUR- USD July 11-15
The situation is now to settle on the British pound after a difficult week and bounces over the area of media 5930/80 which led us to return to- above 1.60 and finish 6070 on Friday.
Last week we were vendor on a parity with daily macd bearish and GBP- USD has strengthened. The daily MACD is now turning to this and certainly the meeting of the Bank of England Thursday, July 7.
For now, we will wait no meeting because the British financial authorities do not seem to lend themselves to change their policy of low interest rates. However, before each announcement, the price should go up a bit.
Continue reading Weekly technical analysis of GBP- USD July 4-8
Last week, we wrote, “In the event that the market anticipates a positive result, the euro should be able to return to 4320 and maybe 4380. If the vote is positive, the European currency is expected to resume colors and 4380/4420 resulting in a return signal bullish for 4620 “and finally optimism prevailed by tracing the euro in 4528.
Europe breathes after the adoption by parliament of Greek austerity plan and the markets have welcomed this positive. However, we are not immune to other concerns and a market correction is expected within the coming months on new challenges.
Continue reading Weekly technical analysis of EUR- USD July 4-8
Last Sunday, we wrote “We are always in our range 1.60/1.67 and we may stay a little while at least while we are in- above 1.60 and 5980 “only this week, parity is out of its range in 5980, ending 5958 on Friday night.
The financial situation of Greece, would contagious for the pound sterling? We asked. It is true that UK statistics are not very good but they are not worse than E- U. However, this week, there is a risk that the book left down to 1.55, if we can not quickly return- above 1.60.
Continue reading Weekly technical analysis of GBP- USD 27 – 1 July
Last week, we wrote, “The area of 4380 and 4420, for this week seems to be a zone of balance between the rise and fall. Therefore, we will remain bearish as these and the bull- above “and finally after a fall earlier this week of 4080 we left to go up to 4405 and end 4187 on Friday night.
Last week, the Europeans and the IMF have agreed to provide financial assistance to Greece. Initially this was welcomed by a back of the euro 4380. But this week we will vote on measures of the austerity plan by the Greek Parliament and does not seem to win both the socialist majority and shared. In effect until June 28, financial markets will hold their breath. A vote against the Greek Parliament could trigger a financial shock waves in Europe and greatly weaken the euro. Conversely, a success would put in parenthesis for a while the problems of Greece.
Continue reading Weekly technical analysis of EUR- USD 27 – 1 July
Last Sunday, we wrote “On the upside this week should be back to- over 6330 and 6380 to go to 1.64. However, with a daily macd bearish this seems difficult at present to see the parity back. Also, it is best to wait and be put down to 6150 or 6050. On these points, we can reposition themselves to purchase. “Parity and finished 6191 on Friday.
Last week, following a number of English statistics rather unfavorable, the cable has followed the same path as the euro earlier this week to find themselves in 6050/80 before rebounding to 1.62.
We are always in our range of 1.60/1.67 and we may stay a little while and that as we are in- above 1.60 and 5980.
Continue reading Weekly technical analysis of GBP-USD June 20-24
Last week, we wrote, “On the downside, you can sell in 4380 with stoploss of 4395/4420 and a passage in 4320 and especially 4270 might lead us to a larger decline at the same time resulting in a bearish cross daily macd in 4180. “And finally after a fall earlier this week in 4080 we are starting to rebound to finish 4320 on Friday night.
As we have seen all of last week, the market abuzz with rumors about the financial risks and policies of Greece. The Greek austerity plan has still not been adopted, but Europe is willing to pay. Besides, how could you it do anything else with a country that at 350 billion debt and that could lead all of Europe in the bankruptcy.
Continue reading Weekly technical analysis of EUR- USD June 20-24
Last Sunday, we wrote “If we fail again 6520, then in that case we could return the items for 6320/10 may be decreasing again down to our channel with 1.60 points for 6250/20 and 6150/20 as media. “parity and there was finished at 6220 on Friday.
Last week we talked about rumors of a rate hike by the Bank of England. It did not happen and the market without really being convinced is decreased again. The coming week is poor in statistics, however we will remain in the range of 1.60/1.67 for a few weeks.
The daily MACD crossed downward, passing under our points of last week’s rebound in 6320/10 and normally we should now return to 6150 see 6050 and 6020. This last point will probably be a good bounce for a return to the high points of the range.
Continue reading Weekly technical analysis of the dollar against sterling 13 to 17 June